Taxation, Inflation, and the Real Root of Population Collapse

Introduction: A Crisis Hidden in Plain Sight

Population collapse is no longer the stuff of dystopian fiction or academic speculation—it is happening now. While many chalk it up to shifting cultural values or personal choice, the true engine behind collapsing fertility isn’t ideology; it’s economics. Specifically, the combined forces of taxation and inflation have reshaped modern life so profoundly that childbearing itself has become an unaffordable luxury for many.

The Economic Tipping Point: When Both Partners Had to Work

In the early 1970s, something subtle but world-altering happened: the cost of living crossed a threshold. Prior to this point, a single income could sustain a family and even allow some discretionary income. But as inflation spiked and wages stagnated, households found themselves stretched. By necessity, more women entered the workforce—not out of liberation, but out of survival.

The result wasn’t just more income. It was a permanent change in the structure of society. Two incomes became the new baseline. Childcare became institutionalized. Family life became squeezed between two careers. Traditional family roles, once a cultural mainstay, began to erode—not from ideology, but from exhaustion.

Taxation and Inflation: Two Sides of the Same Coin

Inflation acts like an invisible tax, eroding purchasing power year over year. Simultaneously, progressive tax systems have increasingly penalized middle-class families whose incomes rise nominally, but not in real terms. The result? Bracket creep and a larger effective tax burden. Between actual taxes and inflation, families are poorer than their grandparents—despite higher incomes on paper.

The Cultural Fallout: Secularization and Institutional Realignment

Government policy didn’t just respond to these changes; it amplified them. As family life became harder to sustain, the state began to fill in the gaps—public schooling, subsidized childcare, eldercare programs, and moral regulation. Over time, religious institutions were displaced not by hostile ideology, but by regulatory substitution.

Today, governments promote a standardized set of secular values through education, media, and social policy. Family, once rooted in religion and culture, is now increasingly a bureaucratic construct. Unsurprisingly, those who remain deeply religious—such as the Amish, Orthodox Jews, and devout Christians—retain higher fertility rates.

The Data Speaks: Religion, Fertility, and the Childless Boom

  • The Amish average nearly 8 children per woman.
  • Devout Christians in the U.S. average 2.2 children per woman.
  • The religiously unaffiliated average only 1.8—well below the replacement rate.
  • In secular urban hubs like London, the fertility rate is as low as 1.35.

What’s more telling? It’s not the families who have 2, 3, or 4 children that drive population averages. It’s the growing number of women—especially secular, urban women—who have zero children. In the U.S., 20% of women now reach the end of their fertile years without ever becoming mothers, double the rate from the 1970s.

Regret and Missed Opportunity: The Myth of Choice

The dominant narrative suggests women are choosing careers over children. But deeper research reveals a different story. Many women plan to start families—just later. They believe they’ll settle down after hitting career milestones in their 30s. But by then, two things hit:

  1. Fertility declines by nearly 50% after age 30.
  2. The dating pool narrows significantly, especially for highly educated women seeking similarly educated partners.

The result? Millions of women find themselves childless—not by intent, but by delay. And surveys consistently show high levels of regret among these women. This is not an anti-feminist argument; it’s a humanitarian one. The system is failing them.

Forecast: Who Collapses First?

The coming population decline will not hit all demographics equally. Progressive, secular, urban populations—those most exposed to high costs, career pressure, and weak family institutions—will shrink the fastest. Meanwhile, religious and rural communities may continue to grow modestly.

This isn’t speculative. The data is already here:

  • Japan has been in population decline since 2008.
  • South Korea hit a TFR of 0.72 in 2023.
  • China’s population peaked earlier than predicted and is now shrinking.
  • In the U.S., college closures are accelerating—over 1 per week—due to plummeting freshman enrollments.

Conclusion: The Fight Isn’t Against Women—It’s Against Unsustainable Policy

Critics may accuse these observations of pushing a regressive or “Handmaid’s Tale” agenda. Nothing could be further from the truth. Advocating for families, for sustainable economics, and for the freedom to have children is not anti-woman. It’s pro-human.

The solution isn’t to turn back the clock—it’s to fix the system. Reduce the cost of living. Rebuild community support. Rethink how we tax and regulate family life. And most importantly, create a society where children are no longer a financial burden, but a welcomed blessing.

Because if we don’t, the collapse will not just be demographic. It will be civilizational.

The Silent Collapse: Economic Recessions and the Global Decline in Fertility Rates

I. Introduction

The world is quietly undergoing one of the most profound transformations in human history—a sustained and accelerating population decline. Contrary to Malthusian fears of overpopulation, the 21st century is witnessing a global fertility crisis with roots deeply embedded in economic forces. This paper explores the linkage between recurring economic downturns, long-term financial stress, and their transformative impact on societal norms surrounding family and fertility.

II. Background Forces: Economic Stress as a Persistent Pressure

1. Economic Recessions and Fertility Decline

  • Since the 1970s, each major economic recession—1973 Oil Crisis, early 1980s Volcker Recession, 1991 Savings and Loan crisis, 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and 2020 COVID-19 Recession—has been followed by measurable drops in fertility.
  • Example: In the United States, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped from 2.12 in 2007 to 1.64 in 2020, a 23% decline over just 13 years.

2. Persistent Inflation and Wage Stagnation

  • Real median wages in the U.S. have remained nearly flat since the 1970s, adjusting for inflation.
  • The cost of housing, healthcare, and education has vastly outpaced inflation. For example, U.S. college tuition rose over 1,200% between 1980 and 2020.
  • Two-income households became the norm, not out of choice, but necessity, diminishing family bandwidth for additional children.

3. Shift in Social and Cultural Attitudes

  • Economic uncertainty has reshaped cultural values around marriage and children.
  • The median age at first birth has increased significantly in developed nations. In the U.S., it rose from 21.4 in 1970 to over 27.3 by 2020.
  • Childbearing is now often postponed into the 30s or foregone entirely.

III. The Demographic Shift: Fertility and the Rise of Childlessness

1. The Key Variable: Women Without Children

  • While those who choose to have children still often have two or more, the percentage of women reaching 45 with zero children has risen dramatically.
  • U.S. Census data shows that in 1976, 10% of women aged 40–44 were childless; by 2020, that number had doubled to over 20%.
  • Research indicates that many of these women did not plan to remain childless. Instead, they intended to start families after establishing careers. However, by age 30—often seen as a point of financial and professional security—fertility has already declined by nearly 50% compared to peak levels in the early to mid-20s.
  • Compounding the problem, women in their 30s frequently face a smaller pool of potential partners, especially if they are seeking mates of similar education or socioeconomic status. As a result, their plans—and more crucially, their desire—to have children often go unfulfilled, not by choice but by circumstance.
  • This dynamic helps explain why up to 50% of women in some advanced economies are now childless. It is not a reflection of waning interest in family, but of a shifting and often unforgiving economic and social landscape.
  • Similar trends are seen in Europe, South Korea, Japan, and China.

2. Quantitative Global Indicators

  • South Korea: TFR hit 0.72 in 2023, the lowest globally.
  • Japan: Population peaked in 2008 and has declined every year since.
  • China: For the first time in decades, the population shrank in 2022, ahead of UN predictions.

3. Educational Pipeline Collapse

  • In the U.S., over 1 college per week is closing or merging due to declining freshman enrollments—a direct result of falling birth rates 18 years prior.
  • Projections suggest that by 2035, over 50% of private colleges may face closure or consolidation.

IV. Future Predictions: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Decline

1. Housing Market Imbalance

  • As population contracts, demand for housing will fall, leading to stagnant or falling real estate prices, especially in rural or less desirable areas.
  • Vacant homes will increase, depressing local economies.

2. Shrinking Tax Base and Underfunded Services

  • With fewer working-age citizens, tax revenues will decline.
  • Programs dependent on payroll taxes—like Social Security, Medicare, and public pensions—will become unsustainable without drastic reform or immigration.

3. Economic Contraction and Labor Shortages

  • Fewer young workers will lead to chronic labor shortages in critical sectors.
  • GDP growth may stall or reverse as aging populations consume more than they produce.

4. Cultural and Institutional Shifts

  • Traditional institutions (schools, churches, youth organizations) may shrink or vanish.
  • The role of the family as a social unit may continue to diminish, replaced by institutional care for aging individuals and AI-driven companionship.

V. Conclusion

Population collapse is not a future problem—it is a current crisis. Rooted in the economic stressors of modern capitalism, high taxes, inflation (another tax), and stagnant wages; amplified by cultural evolution, and ignored by short-sighted policy, this demographic implosion threatens to upend the foundations of society. Reversing it will require more than pro-natalist policies—it demands economic reform, social reinvestment, and a reawakening of cultural values that support family life.

VI. References

  • U.S. Census Bureau, Fertility Tables (1976–2020)
  • World Bank, Global Fertility Data
  • OECD Family Database
  • Pew Research Center Reports on Childlessness and Economic Behavior
  • UN World Population Prospects (2022)
  • National Student Clearinghouse Research Center
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics: Wage Data (1970–2020)
  • IMF, Global Wage Reports
  • Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS)
  • Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications
  • China National Bureau of Statistics

Trump is failing

It saddens me deeply but it is true, Trump is failing….

Let’s start with what we consider Trump victories. Trump has closed the boarder and deported several thousand violent alien invaders. It is true Biden caused this problem deliberately but it is also true keeping violent invaders out of the country is ‘just the job’. So while the comparison is stark, the accomplishments are mediocre. Even if you disagree with me the more important issue, the one Trump cannot and will not fix is the 10s of Millions of illegal aliens that remain in the USA. On this point, not only have the democrats won, but they also have the courts fighting Trump on exporting violent alien invaders. Trump isn’t stupid and is using this ‘victory’ as Shadows on the Cave Wall to distract the massive failures of the administration.

Next is the work of DOGE. They have uncovered TONS of fraud, abuse, and corruption. This attention will quiet the deep state (for now) and some people may loose their job, but the bigger truth is nobody is being taken to jail for corruption and the financial impact of what DOGE has found are minor impacts to the budget. Various departments have made staffing cuts to align with the Trump agenda and to save money but again these are Shadows on the Cave Wall relative to the huge budget problems and the cancer which is the deep state which are not and will not get cured via DOGE

And that’s it. That’s the extent of the good news; it is mediocre and the root cause issues remain unaddressed.

so what’s the bad news…..

There is zero evidence that the CIA, FBI and DOJ have done anything to address the deep state problems in those agencies. There have been ZERO arrests of corrupt deep state actors or the elites involved in corruption as indicated by DOGE and YEARS of documented crimes.

FBI & DOJ have spent all there time ‘talking’ about what they ‘will’ do but NEVER about who they have arrested. They spend more time ‘talking’ on FNC than they do arresting criminals. Adding insult to injury the arrests they have made are ones that are the domain of the local PD, instead of solving Federal crimes. Yet another example of Shadows on the Cave Wall; keep doing bullshit things that are not their job so folks don’t notice that they are no doing their REAL job. Recent release of SOME JFK documents are touted as as some kind of victory but the information is already known and so old there is nobody in power to arrest….. again Shadows on the Cave Wall. Total bullshit.

Here is a TASTE of what they are hiding and will never prosecute …..

• Benghazi • J6 FBI & Pelosi agitators • J6 bomb • J6 destruction of documents • Hunter laptop • White House Cocaine • Burisma money laundering •  Epstein death • Diddy & Epstein pedophiles • Trump shooters • Nord stream pipeline • USAID money laundering • Vegas shooter • Covid corruption • $17M Congress harassment payouts

UFOs and MLK assassination by the CIA & FBI are NOT on the list …. these are just more Shadows on the Cave Wall

Why such an unforgiving analysis? Because the corruption not being addressed means we do NOT have equal justice in the USA. Without equal justice our constitution is invalid. We are not citizens, we have no rights, no liberty, we are cattle. We serve the state instead of the state serving the people.

It’s a sham. Its Shadows on the Cave Wall.

JMJ 🙏4️⃣👨‍👩‍👧‍👦

Trump is slowing down

Key to Trump’s success is to make massive changes in the first 100 days. This is universally understood among executives and politicians as required to lay the foundation for the rest of his term.

We expect Democrats to ‘say no’ to all changes but they are politically powerless

But it doesn’t stop there. Lawfare is being successfully employed to slow and block many of Trumps actions.

More importantly the momentum of the administrative state is astronomical. The way to combat this is mass layoffs quickly. Musk knows this and started with a bang but courts have reversed him and the leadership team has whined (bad sign). Then Trump made the huge mistake of saying Musk would use a scalpel not a chainsaw. This was enough to embolden his detractors and staff.

With 6 weeks under our belt it is clear several of Trumps cabinet talk more than they do. Bondi is the worst. She talks on FNC frequently about all the good things she will do but so far she has accomplished zero.

more details later…. but this is all really bad.

Bondi v Truth

From the school of Adam Schiff, AG Bondi has been promising the full release of the Epstein files claiming; to have all the disgusting details on her desk. This week she released documents that everyone saw years ago from the trial of Ghislaine Maxwell consisting of some flight logs and Epstein’s rolodex. She quickly came out claiming she was surprised by the lack of completeness and anger at the Southern District of New York (SDNY) who allegedly has been withholding a trove of Epstein files. Bondi told the FBI SDNY to deliver the files to her by 8AM the next day.

But wait…..

Bondi KNOWS the Epstein case first hand from her days in Florida so feigning surprise is not acceptable. In addition anybody with an ounce of intelligence could tell you that the files from the Maxwell trial are NOT all the files. Why is she lying?

Bondi’s anger is NOT credible because when the 8AM deadline was missed there were no consequences. There was NO FOLLOWUP. Why isn’t she taking action?

Unfortunately Bondi’s narrative is being accepted by her supporters, but I am not buying her story. Does Trump buy her story? Why isn’t Trump asking for her resignation?

Is Trump in on the lies….

Instead of an 8 AM document dump; a meeting between Zelenskyy and Trump to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine was conducted in front of the US media. What? Yes, in front of the media. The meeting decayed into a shouting match and Trump literally showed Zelenskyy the door.

The dust up in the media has been a 10.0 magnitude earthquake all over the world. All media attention on the Epstein files instantly evaporated (with the single exception of Blaze Media) in favor of the Zelenskyy v Trump story. Did Trump stage the dust up to overshadow the non-release of the Epstein files and to protect Bondi?

Surprised and Angry …

The American people and the POTUS cannot afford to have a US AG who gets “surprised”. We cannot have a DOJ that makes deadlines without consequences. Even if we take Bondi at her word and she is “angry” at the SDNY then why hasn’t she shut them down…. they work for her? The US AG simply isn’t allowed to make these kind of excuses. Is she in control of her organization or not? The SDNY FBI has been known to be a problem for many many years

Not fit to serve….

She should resign. Trump should fire her.

Why is Trump protecting her?

Trump, Musk & DOGE find abuse in US government ….

  • $1.5M to “advanced diversity, equity, inclusion in Serbia …”
  • $122M to groups aligned with foreign terrorist organizations
  • $2M for sex changes in Guatemala
  • $20M to produce a new Sesame Street
  • $4.5M to combat misinformation in Kazakhstan
  • $10M to Qaeda-linked terrorist Nusra Front
  • $7.9M to teach Sri Lankan journalists to avoid binary gendered language
  • $1.5M to promote LGBT advocacy in Jamaica
  • $1.5M to rebuild the Cuban media ecosystem
  • $1.5M for art for inclusion of people with disabilities in Belarus
  • $3.9M for LGBT causes in Macedonia
  • $8.3M for equity and inclusion education in Nepal
  • $10M for “Mozambique voluntary medical male circumcision” –
  • $9.7M for UC Berkeley to develop “Cambodian youth with enterprise driven skills”
  • $2.3M for “strengthening independent voices in Cambodia”
  • $32M to the Prague Civil Society Centre
  • $40M for “gender equality and women empowerment hub”
  • $14M for “improving public procurement” in Serbia
  • $486M to the “Consortium for Elections and Political Process Strengthening in Moldova”
  • $22M for “inclusive and participatory political process” in Moldova
  • $21M for voter turnout in India
  • $29M to “strengthening political landscape in Bangladesh”
  • $20M for “fiscal federalism” in Nepal
  • $19M for “biodiversity conversation” in Nepal
  • $1.5M for “voter confidence” in Liberia
  • $14M for “social cohesion” in Mali
  • $2.5M for “inclusive democracies in Southern Africa”
  • $47M for “improving learning outcomes in Asia”
  • $2M to develop “sustainable recycling models for Kosovo Roma, Ashkali, and Egypt”
  • Fort Stewart, Georgia: $17 million collected, $2.1 million spent on food
  • Fort Drum, New York: $18.2 million collected, $3.9 million spent on food
  • Fort Carson, Colorado: $22 million collected, $5 million spent on food
  • Fort Riley, Kansas: $19.1 million collected, $5.1 million spent on food
  • Fort Bliss, Texas: $22 million collected, $11 million spent on food
  • Fort Cavazos, Texas: $42.5 million collected, $11.7 million spent on food
  • Fort Bragg, North Carolina: $34.6 million collected, $16.6 million spent on food
  • Fort Campbell, Kentucky: $18 million collected, $5.1 million spent on food

https://stream.mux.com/mTQeraFu2pzNZ2ljgu14tDFXZ5m8c6V3.m3u8?redundant_streams=true

its ok to cry now, or get angry; you choose

Artificial Intelligence

Since the onset of transformers in 2022 when AI started to capture the headlines, my claim has been that AGI is not very interesting because the underlying fear is what I call the ‘terminator scenario”. The more precise concern is of a sentient AI. Regardless, my claim is we can unplug any such malevolent AI. The concern I have expressed comes from the LLM that exist today as they can be designed by malevolent humans. In short, humans can be evil and LLMs can be designed to the requirements of evil people. Thus I claim it is too soon to worry about sentience or AGI when we have very dangerous and impactful LLMs today. But none of this the reason for this post.

In the last year I have focused more on AGI and sentience. Among other things I have come to believe AGI is not possible without multimodal data. Until AI has data for sight, smell, speech, taste, hearing and touch it is cannot be sentient. While we could have sentience without one or more of the human senses, AGI requires all the senses. Some of the senses are further along development than others but a true AGI needs all of them. Lastly on this point of multimodal data is the the amount of data required to feed such an AI. Today we have lots of text data but a comparatively small amount of multimodal data. Nobody can truly estimate the size of such a database simply because we haven’t developed the methods and standards for capturing, digitizing and storing all the possible values for all of the senses. The amount of required data is simply unimaginable with the technology we have today.

Don’t get me wrong. AI will quickly become smart enough that it can do better than 99% of all humans and virtually all tasks but it won’t be one of us without the complete exposure to living that humans enjoy.

But now for my latest thinking. it is well understood that human dreaming is a vital part of our mental health. Rem sleep and dreaming create a regenerative process within the mind. We solve problems in our sleep. We imagine other worlds where the rules of physics do not apply. We reorganize patterns in our mind so that our brain can remain focused during our waking hours. Can an AI be sentient if it does not dream? Can AI achieve AGI if it cannot dream? My intuition is ‘no’ it cannot. But again I caution that even without multimodal data and the ability to dream, AI will be powerful enough to fool most people into believing its sentient so perhaps its a moot point. Perhaps my point is that just because an AI can pass the Turing test does not make it AGI or sentient. Just because an AI says it dreams or says it is sentient does not make it true.

So what? Is this important? Probably not.

I believe machines won’t be sentient for a VERY long time or achieve AGI due to the compute and data requirements BUT the consequences of getting 90% there are profound. Perhaps I am just looking for a way to change our conversations away from AGI and sentience towards some new set of defined milestones to help people understand the power and the dangers of AI that emerge before AGI and sentience since those milestones are too far in the distance to matter.

Lights in the sky

For the last month there have been dozens of “drones” reported in the night sky; mostly over New Jersey but not exclusively. Government says ‘nothing to fear’, ‘it is not the Pentagon’, ‘it is not a foreign government’ but we have no idea what it is. In the same briefing they say they need more help to investigate, translation….. give us more money.

My conclusion is that these drones and the ufo sightings from decades past are ALL false flag operations from the government designed to breed fear and compliance among the proletariat. Inside of fear and compliance the government can more easily demand more money and greater reduction in individual liberty. I predict drones will become illegal for private citizens.

It would really be nice if Trump were to declassify the whole fucking charade (PsyOP).

Trump SWEEPS the election

Popular vote…check

Electoral vote…check

Senate…check

House…check

Liz Cheney immediately declares war on Trump …… “Our nation’s democratic system functioned last night and we have a new President-elect. All Americans are bound, whether we like the outcome or not, to accept the results of our elections. We now have a special responsibility, as citizens of the greatest nation on earth, to do everything we can to support and defend our Constitution, preserve the rule of law, and ensure that our institutions hold over these coming four years. Citizens across this country, our courts, members of the press and those serving in our federal, state and local governments must now be the guardrails of democracy.” Damn this woman evil.

The left is launched into a blame game. It’s all bull shit not worth capturing. Progressive voters are truly despondent. I’ve had people cancel meetings because they are just “too upset to think straight”. I should not be surprised when the mainstream media and Democrats have been screaming for 10 years that Trump is Hitler. If it were true I suppose I would be shitting my pants too; but of course it’s just another lie. The elites know it isn’t true but they have convinced the proletariat that Trump will destroy democracy and be a dictator. So much crap.

Harris made a concession speech 18 hours after the election was called and it was horrible. Instead of being grateful to her team and wishing Trump success she chose to focus completely on ‘continuing the fight”. My read is simple…. she’s encouraging the deep state and activists to make life miserable for Trump. In other words the fight isn’t over, it has just had a change of venue. Marxist to the core.

Homeland Security & US Bureaucrats TOTAL FAIL

Last week, the Chinese hacking and spying operation known as “Salt Typhoon” was revealed to have targeted former president Donald Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, as well as staffers forVice President Kamala Harris’s campaign and for Congress. The Post has reported that the hackers were able to collect audio and text messages from their targets in a wide-ranging espionage operation, which likely began several months ago.

But what is less wellunderstood, according to six current and former senior U.S. officials I spoke with from both parties, all of whom were briefed by the U.S. intelligence communityon the operation, is that the threat is much broader. The Chinese hackers, who the United States believes are linked to Beijing’s Ministry of State Security, have burrowed inside the private wiretapping and surveillance system that American telecom companies built for the exclusive use of U.S. federal law enforcement agencies and the U.S. government believes they likely continue to have access to the system. Millions of mobile-phone users on the networks of at least three major U.S. carriers could thus be ongoingly vulnerable to Chinese government surveillance.

The U.S. government and the telecom companies that are dealing with the breach have said very little publicly about it since it was first detected in August, leaving the public to rely on details trickling out through leaks. If millions of Americans are vulnerable to Chinese surveillance, they have a right to know now. More information needs to be shared, despite the sensitivity of the issue, the close timing to the election and what remains unknown.

The officials I spoke with, most of whom were not allowed to speak on the record because the hack is being investigated by an interagency team, described a scramble inside the U.S. government to respond to the breach. Several officials told me that targets identified by the intelligence community also include senior U.S. government officials and top business leaders.

“It is much more serious and much worse than even what you all presume at this point,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark R. Warner (D-Virginia) said. “It is one of the most serious breaches in my time on the Intelligence Committee.”

The so-called lawful-access system breached by the Salt Typhoon hackers was established by telecom carriers after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, to allow federal law enforcement officials to execute legal warrants for records of Americans’ phone activity or to wiretap them in real time, depending on the warrant. Many of these cases are authorized under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), which is used to investigate foreign spying that involves contact with U.S. citizens. The system is also used for legal wiretaps related to domestic crimes.

It is unknown whether hackers were able to access records about classified wiretapping operations, which could compromise federal criminal investigations and U.S. intelligence operations around the world, multiple officials told me. But they confirmed the previous reporting that hackers were able to both listen in on phone calls and monitor text messages.

The officials said the number of compromised targets identified in the investigation is growing. Multiple officials briefed by the investigators told methe U.S. government does not know how many people were targeted, how many were actively surveilled, how long the Chinese hackers have been in the system, or how to get them out.

“Right now, China has the ability to listen to any phone call in the United States, whether you are the president or a regular Joe, it makes no difference,” one of the hack victims briefed by the FBI told me. “This has compromised the entire telecommunications infrastructure of this country.”

The Wall Street Journal first reported on Oct. 5 that China-based hackers had penetrated the networks of U.S. telecom providers and might have penetrated the system that telecom companies operate to allow lawful access to wiretapping capabilities by federal agencies. On Oct. 10, the leaders of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party sent a letter to the chief executives of Verizon, AT&T and Lumen Technologies asking them when they detected the attack and what they were doing about it.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (Illinois), the ranking Democrat on the committee, told me during an interview that Congress and the federal government spent years working to keep Chinese technology out of the U.S. telecom system for fear Beijing might use it to spy on Americans. Now, Chinese intelligence might have outmaneuvered them by breaking in through the back door, he said.

There’s no evidence yet that Beijing plans to use any information collected to interfere in U.S. politics or Tuesday’s presidential election, though it remains a concern, Krishnamoorthi told me. But short of that, Beijing could still use these operations to hurt the United States in several ways, he said. The Chinese government could use its infiltration of U.S. telecom networks to disable them during warfare, for instance. The information collected from Americans could be used for blackmail or disinformation campaigns.

“Not only are they potentially inserting malware to disrupt our telecommunications networks. On top of that, it’s a surveillance system,” the congressman told me.

Krishnamoorthi said he believes the companies have a moral and perhaps a legal obligation to inform their customers about a breach of this nature. Americans can only change their practices — by relying more on encrypted apps, for instance — if they are aware of the threat, he said.

“How long have [the hackers]been doing this? What are we doing to combat it? What is the price to pay for them doing that? … I haven’t received any definitive answers,” he said. “We want people to know and then to be able to take countermeasures to protect themselves.”

A Verizon spokesperson told me the company was working with federal law enforcement “to confirm, assess and remediate any potential impact” of the reported breach. Lumen declined to comment, and AT&T did not respond to a request for comment.

The White House has also said nothing about the breach. The National Security Council declined to comment, and the FBI did not respond to a request for comment. On Oct. 25, the FBI and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released a brief statement stating that the U.S. government was investigating “unauthorized access to commercial telecommunications infrastructure by actors affiliated with the People’s Republic of China.”

That same day, the FBI notified 40 victims of Salt Typhoon, according to multiple officials. The FBI informed one person who had been compromised that the initial group of identified targets included six affiliated with the Trump campaign, this person said, and that the hackers had been monitoring them as recently as last week. According to that individual, Trump, Vance, Eric Trump, Jared Kushner and two other Trump campaign advisers were told they had been surveilled.

“They had live audio from the president, from JD, from Jared,” the person told me. “There were no device compromises, these were all real-time interceptions.”

Vance publicly confirmed that his and Trump’s phones were “hacked by Chinese hackers” during his interview with podcaster Joe Rogan released on Thursday. “They only got some offensive memes and me telling my wife to buy more milk at the grocery store,” he said. “They couldn’t get my encrypted messages; I use Signal and iMessage.”

Vance was correct to say that encrypted apps and iMessage are not affected by the hack, so long as they are used over WiFi rather than over cellular networks. But Vance’s confidence that Chinese hackers did not gain useful material could be unfounded, because the duration of the surveillance is believed to date back to last year.

Vance told Rogan the Chinese hackers cracked a “backdoor telecom infrastructure that was developed in the wake of the Patriot Act.” Many in the MAGA wing of the Republican Party have long criticized the federal government’s use of post-9/11 legal authority to surveil Americans. The use and alleged abuse of FISA warrants to surveil Trump campaign members were the basis of Trump’s (incorrect) claim that President Barack Obama spied on him in 2016.

Though the Chinese hack is not connected to that directly, Republicans are sure to point to this breach to reopen the debate over the safety and management of the FISA system. The Trump campaign is already blaming the Biden administration for the breach. “Kamala Harris and Democrats have continued to engage in election interference and will stop at nothing, including emboldening China and Iran attacking critical American infrastructure, to prevent President Trump from returning to the White House,” Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung told me.

The Harris campaign declined to comment. Sources in both camps tell me that top officials have been warned about the vulnerability and are adjusting their communications practices in response.

Chinese hacking and spying operations are hardly new. For example, since 2021, the U.S. government has been tracking a separate Chinese operation known as Volt Typhoon, which sought to embed itself in critical infrastructure within U.S. manufacturing, construction and information technology. But telecom infrastructure in the United States was considered more secure, until now.

“Chinese intelligence is targeting critical nodes that make our entire system vulnerable and give them unprecedented ability to target individual Americans,” Peter Mattis, a former counterintelligence official and president of the Jamestown Foundation, a Washington think tank, told me. “Breaches like this showcase their world-class sophistication and the necessity of taking Chinese intelligence seriously.”

Based on what is already known, this breach represents a major failure of the telecom companies and the U.S. government to protect critical infrastructure, as is their joint responsibility. But the blame game can wait. Right now, the American people need to know more about the ongoing threat to their privacy. And the Chinese government needs to pay a cost, or Beijing will conclude there is no risk in continuing to surveil Americans’ private communications.

Hat Tip Washington Post